There is very little margin for making a profit in the wine business.
Personal experience importing excellent Slovenian wines nearly 20 years ago still conjures uneasy memories of the process. Nevertheless, the opportunity was both instructive and humbling. I marvel at those who continue to undertake those risks.
Importing, distribution, and sales of wine and spirits is difficult in the best of circumstances. When the industry faces both a pandemic and extraordinary tariffs the task becomes virtually impossible. Welcome to 2020-21.
Tariffs are by their nature punitive. They are generally imposed as a punishment for a nation’s economic decisions that create an imbalance in the world of international trade. They may also be imposed for the purpose of protecting a domestic industry against nations who could flood a nation’s domestic market with inexpensively produced items or materials. For example, Air Jordan’s (almost always the example) cost approximately $16 to produce (materials and labor). A pair can cost you over $150 at Foot Locker. Nike and Foot Locker are responsible for some of the difference, but the bulk of that $134 difference is tariffs. The tariffs are designed to protect American shoemakers (good luck finding one), and to discourage the use of unfair or abusive labor practices. How does this apply to wine?
The United States imports many bottles and much bulk wine and spirits. The United States also exports many bottles of wines and spirits. There are numerous international organizations whose function is to act as trade arbiters seeking balance and fairness amongst the world’s trading partners.
Sometimes people cheat.
In 2004 France provided subsidies and a competitive advantage to the aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The World Trade Organization determined that the subsidies provided Airbus an unfair advantage. The U.S. imposed tariffs following the 2004 incident, and then renewed them in October of 2019. Interestingly, those tariffs imposed a 25% duty on the wines of France, Spain, and Germany with an ABV under 14%. In early January, wines from those three countries with ABV 14% and higher will be subject to the same tariff.
Tariffs on wine exports impact a broader portion of a nation’s population than does aircraft manufacture. Effectively, the goal of tariffs is to “hit them where it hurts”.
The Europeans responding by imposing duties on orange juice and, interestingly, ketchup.
The impact of the tariff on French wine imports to the U.S. has been dramatic…a 37% decline in the first nine months of 2020. The impact is largely on this side of the Atlantic. More on this later.
The most recent round of tariffs was particularly damaging. They were imposed without warning, and they carried no exemption for ‘goods on the water’. Importers will have to pay increased tariffs when the wines arrive in port. Importers will increase the price of those wines sold to distributors; distributors will increase the price of those wines to retailers, bars, and restaurants; those entities will increase the price to you. Ultimately, all tariffs are paid by the consumer. Tariffs are reflected in the price of your shoes, your airline ticket, and your wine. Economists suggest that for every dollar of tariff the price of a product is increased by $4 to the U.S. consumer. Smaller concerns, such as Grassroots Wine of Charleston, which imports from France, Spain, and Germany will pay $12,000 in additional tariffs, while New York’s Vintus, already suffering from a 40% reduction in sales, will pay an additional $1.3 million on products ordered last year. Expect your favorite French, Spanish and German wines to be more expensive as 2021 dawns.
Earlier wine tariffs were in part absorbed by importers and distributors to protect their markets. However, even with the effort to manage the impact, the damage to the U.S. restaurant industry has been significant.
Restaurateurs rely on the markup charged for lower cost imports to compensate for the very small margin on food. The tariffs have seriously affected an industry already as risk as a result of the pandemic. Some estimates suggest that more than 100,000 restaurants have closed in the past ten months. The increasing cost of wine will likely close still more.
Reuters reports that Ben Aneff of New York’s Tribeca Wine Merchants, said that “the tariffs on European wines were expected to cost some $10 billion in lost revenue and 78,000 job losses, hitting the nation’s 47,000 wine retailers and more than 6,500 importers and distributors disproportionately hard”. Additionally, states and localities will lose $100 million in taxes on alcohol sales.
The impact on European producers has been less than in the United States. They have simply shifted their sales emphasis to other markets…notably Asia. Economists suggest that the monetary impact will be four times greater in the U.S. than in Europe.
It is likely that the new administration will act to roll back the tariffs. However, it will not happen immediately. President Biden’s nominee for U.S. trade Representative, Katherine Tai is “well-versed in the issues that tariffs on wine cause businesses in the United States”. And tariffs are reviewed regularly. The wine tariffs are due for review in mid-February. Unfortunately, Tai may not have been confirmed by the Senate by that time. With so many issues facing the United States, wine tariffs are not likely to of immediate concern.
Interestingly, airplane parts (Airbus has a manufacturing facility in Mobile, Alabama) face only a 15% tariff. However, it will have an impact. This tariff will likely make Airbus products manufactured in the Mobile, Alabama, noncompetitive. Further, recent the World Trade Organization ruled that the U.S. had provided subsidies to its domestic air industry, and other nations have imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States.
However, our focus is wine.
American wine tastes are fickle. Price is certainly a factor that helps inform taste. The importers of European wines understand that price drives consumer’s decisions, and that once a consumer decides that decision is rarely revisited.
Those at the greatest financial risk have responded. A new organization of chefs, The Coalition to Stop Restaurant Tariffs, has joined with The U.S. Wine Trade Alliance (USTWA) to request that the new administration move quickly to repeal the tariffs.
We can only hope that they are successful, and I will keep you posted on their efforts.
Next post…back to the positive side of wines and spirits.